Has the stock market peaked? According to Morgan Stanley’s ETF Weekly Update for April 5, ETFs saw outflows of $635 million last week.
U.S. large-cap ETFs posted the largest net outflows on both a one-week and 13-week basis. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was the primary driver of the move, posting the largest outflows for all U.S. listed ETFs on both the one-week, $1.8 billion, and 13-week basis, $7.3 billion. Going against the trend, the PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) surprisingly had the largest one-week net inflow for an ETF holding U.S. assets, at $307 million.
Meanwhile, the two areas with the strongest net inflows are fixed income and international equity. With a 14% share, fixed income is now the third largest segment of the U.S. ETF market. The Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock ETF (VWO) posted the strongest net inflows for all U.S.-listed ETFs over the 13-week period, $2.6 billion.
On the short interest front, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) saw the largest increase in short positions, up 6%, or 12.5 million shares, from 211 million shares on Feb. 26. The Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF) saw the largest decline in short interest, falling 14%, or 22.8 million shares, from 158 million shares short as of Feb. 26.
Morgan Stanley says “first-to-market continues to be a big driver of success for new ETFs, and with the exception of ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL), each of the most successful recent launches was the first ETF to market within a specific segment.” Four different asset classes are represented in the top 10 launches, with equity, fixed income and commodity each having three.
The report lists the most successful recent launches by assets.
- Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), with a market cap of $908 million.
- Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (BRF), $693 million.
- ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT), $495 million.
- Vanguard FTSE All World ex-US Small-Cap ETF (VSS), $459 million.
- PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index Fund (STPZ), $429 million.
- ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF), $404 million.
- WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund (CEW), $400 million.
- ETFS Gold Trust (SGOL), $360 million.
- SPDR Barclays Capital Convertible Bond ETF (CWB), $290 million.
- ETFS Physical Palladium Share (PALL), $251 million.
Over the last week, only four saw net inflows: ETFS Physical Platinum Shares ($16 million); PIMCO 1-5 Year U.S. TIPS Index Fund ($10 million); ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury ($22 million); and WisdomTree Dreyfus Emerging Currency Fund ($2 million).
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